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SARGA.CO - With victories secured in the Satsuki Sho and the Japanese Derby, Lovcen has placed himself one race away from joining one of the most exclusive clubs in Japanese horse racing.

Only a handful have completed the Japanese Triple Crown, and as anticipation builds toward the final Classic in October, many fans and racing observers believe Lovcen has what it takes to make history.

However, the 3,000-metre Kikuka Sho presents a unique challenge unlike any race he has faced before.

One of the strongest arguments in Lovcen's favour is his lineage, as both his sire World Premier and legendary grandsire Deep Impact proved their worth as stayers by winning the Kikuka Sho and the Tenno Sho (Spring).

His bloodlines also trace back to influential European stamina influences like Acatenango and Surumu, while his damsire Giant's Causeway is renowned for passing on durability and staying ability.

Taken together, the pedigree suggests Lovcen should flourish on the demanding 3,000-metre distance of the Kikuka Sho rather than be stretched by it.

Perhaps even more impressively, Lovcen has already demonstrated exceptional speed and temperament over 2,000 and 2,400 metres, leading many to believe he has even greater potential over longer trips, let alone Japan’s longest Classic.

In the Satsuki Sho, he dictated the pace from the front to claim victory in track-record time. Then, in the Japanese Derby, he won with a late surge despite drawing a difficult outside gate and being blocked early on.

That tactical versatility has become one of his best traits. Rather than relying on a single racing style, Lovcen has shown he can adapt to the circumstances of each race, which may be invaluable in the often unpredictable Kikuka Sho.

Despite Lovcen’s impressive resume, few believe the Triple Crown is already assured. The Kikuka Sho is regarded as a specialist's race, testing stamina, patience, tactical awareness and flawless race management over 3,000 metres.

Many observers believe long-distance races place even more emphasis on jockey decision-making than shorter Classics. That means additional attention will fall on Kohei Matsuyama, who has guided Lovcen throughout his Classic campaign.

Should the pair complete the Triple Crown together, Matsuyama would notch an extra feather in his cap as having captured both colt and filly Classics in recent seasons.

Having proven staying ability, Realize Sirius has consistently challenged Lovcen throughout the Classics. Cavallerizzo and Matenro Gale have accumulated valuable experience over Classic distances and may benefit from the longer trip at Kyoto.

Perhaps the most dangerous threat, Basse Terre displayed impressively inherited stamina in the Derby, making a sustained run through the field before finishing strongly beyond the winning post. Like many of Kitasan Black’s offspring, he is also expected to improve greatly over the summer with maturity. 

 Adding another layer of intrigue is jockey Christophe Lemaire, who not only is looking for payback after losing the Derby with Peintre Naif by a head, but has also won the last three editions of the Kikuka Sho. Regardless of which horse he partners, his outstanding record in Japan's longest Classic ensures he will command Lovcen’s respect.
 

Triple Crown opportunities are extraordinarily rare, and even horses that dominate the first two Classics often find the Kikuka Sho to be their toughest wall, where stamina, race tactics and even luck can make the difference between winning or losing.

But for Lovcen, the ingredients appear to be in place. He owns a pedigree built for long-distance races, has already demonstrated tactical versatility at the highest level, and enters the autumn as the clear leader of his generation.

Whether that will be enough to secure Japan's greatest Classic prize, if he can stay healthy and continue to develop through this summer, remains to be seen.